Will there be a mega earthquake in Japan in 2025?
What IS A “Mega-Thrust Earthquake”?
A “mega-thrust earthquake” in the context of Japan refers to a particularly large and catastrophic earthquake, often with a magnitude of 8 or greater, that could generate a tsunami.
Specifically, Japan is concerned about a potential mega-thrust earthquake along the Nankai Trough, a subduction zone off the coast of Japan’s southern islands.
The Nankai Trough is a submarine trough located south of the Nankaidō region of Japan’s main island of Honshu, extending approximately 900 km (559 mi) offshore.
It marks a subduction zone that is caused by subduction of the Philippine Sea plate beneath Japan, part of the Eurasian plate.
This fault is known to produce large earthquakes, and a recent advisory from the Japanese government highlighted the potential for a magnitude 9 quake in the Nankai Trough that could cause significant devastation.
Essentially, the Philippine Sea plate is pushing underneath the Eurasian plate. The plates become locked and gradually increase in tension, like coiling a spring. One day, the lock point will slip and the Eurasian plate will, just like a spring, snap back into it’s original position, causing both a significant earthquake and tsunami.
Seismologists have warned of an 80% chance of a Nankai Trough mega-thrust earthquake occurring within the next 30 years.
Worst Case Scenario…
In March 2025 a government advisory panel revisited previous analysis of the situation and revised that a Nankai Trough mega-thrust earthquake, and the resulting tsunami could claim the lives of around 300,000 people, completely destroy roughly 2.5 million buildings and cause ¥292 trillion in economic damages.
764 cities, towns and villages in Tokyo and 30 other prefectures from Fukushima to Okinawa have been designated at risk of lower 6 (shindo scale) earthquake or higher and 3 meter high or higher tsunami.
The Rumours Of A Mega Earthquake In Japan In 2025
It is being reported that predicted inbound tourism numbers for 2025 have seen an unexpected dip as some people who had plans to travel to Japan have cancelled their bookings, due to fears of a Nankai Trough earthquake occurring this year, specifically on July 5th.
But where does this specific date come from?
Well, from a Japanese manga artist by the name of Ryo Tatsuki (竜樹諒).
In 1999, Tatsuki published 私が見た未来 “The Future I Saw”, a manga based on her prophetic dreams.
Her work has recently resurfaced online due to her previous premonitions that came true.
In the book, Tatsuki claims to have foreseen in her dreams the death of Freddie Mercury in 1991, Princess Diana in 1997 and a deadly Kobe earthquake in 1995, however these all occurred before her book was published.
Yet it seems that she did predict a major catastrophic event in March 2011, which was the month that Japan was hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami, leading to the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Additionally she seems to have had premonitions regarding a great disease and world-wide chaos in 2020, with a culmination point of April 2020, which was roughly when COVID-19 was at it’s strongest point of contagion.
The 2021 re-print of the original included previously unreleased pages claiming that “The real disaster will arrive in July 2025” and warn of a possible mega-tsunami.
She claims to have seen the sea “boiling” to the south of Japan, interpreted as signs of an underwater volcanic explosion that could trigger massive destruction and tsunami.
Although this does not exactly line up with the events of a Nankai Trough mega-thrust earthquake, it has nevertheless led to some people making that link.
Predicting Earthquakes, The Science
The truth is that earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted, and unlike hurricanes there is no season in which earthquakes are more likely to occur.
While it’s not possible to predict the exact time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes, scientists can assess the probability of earthquakes occurring in specific areas.
The process involves analysing historical data, understanding fault lines, and using various tools to monitor seismic activity.
Early warning systems can detect the moment that an earthquake does occur, and alert to the oncoming tremor. However, accurately predicting earthquakes into the future is simply impossible, scientifically speaking.
Should YOU Cancel Travel Plans?
That is entirely up to you. If you are worried enough that it would adversely affect your ability to enjoy your visit to Japan, then perhaps it would be best to make other plans.
However, as stated above it is impossible to accurately predict earthquakes with science. So it comes down to whether or not you believe the supposed clairvoyance of Ryo Tatsuki.
There have been many people in the past who have claimed to predict the future, Nostradamus and Baba Vanga are probably the most famous, but even they got more wrong than they did right, and most of what they got right was described rather vaguely and then retrospectively linked to events after they occurred.
If you throw enough dirt at a wall, some of it will inevitably stick.
Am I Worried?
Short answer… No.
Slightly less short answer… If you spend your life constantly worried about things not in your control which might happen, you will spoil your chances of manifesting positive experiences and enjoying the things that are in your control.
Yes, there is a chance that a devastating earthquake will occur in the next 30 years, perhaps even this year… but there is also a chance that the earth will be hit by an yet undetected civilisation ending asteroid, or that the sun will eject a massive flare destroying our technology, setting us back a hundred or more years.
There is even a chance that I will be hit by a bus tomorrow.
So I try not to worry. If it happens then it happens, but I am certainly not going to let the premonitions of a Japanese manga artist scare me from enjoying the time that I have in the place that I am in…
I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else right now.
Thank you for reading!
