The Soaring Price of Rice
The price of rice on average in Japan has been soaring over the past couple of years.
Even over the past only twelve months it has risen to nearly double what is was.
There have been various theories as to what has caused this, from poor harvests due to weather, to decreased demand and even over-tourism, but I would like to raise a point regarding the massively increased levels of exported rice, along with those other previously mentioned factors.
The Data
I have produced some graphs based on data made available by the Japanese government (Ministry of Agriculture), which may shine a light on perhaps the largest contributing factors to the ever increasing price of rice to the average consumer.
The Price of Rice
White rice is a such a staple in Japanese cuisine, both commercially and in the home.
Most domestic consumers prefer to purchase rice in 5kg bags, so that is where I will focus my data, the average cost of a 5kg bag of milled white rice as found on supermarket shelves.
As you can see by the graph above, for the periods of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, the price of rice remained relatively stable.
However, the last year, 2024-2025 things look very different.
Rice Production
The domestic production levels of milled rice in Japan has been steadily decreasing over the years. This could be due to both unfavourable weather conditions and an ageing agricultural population.
In-fact the percentage of rice farmers over the age of 65 has been increasing, as younger generations move out of the rural areas seeking a life and employment in the city.
However, we will explore another cause of the reduction in rice production further down on this post…
Many households are turning away from rice in favour of other grains such as wheat, which will in turn affect the demand even more and disincentivise farmers from even planting rice crops, in favour of other grains and produce.
The government have justified a reduced rice crop because Japanese families are diversifying their diet with other grains, but it seems like a catch-22 situation…
Plant less rice because people eat more wheat due to the rising price of rice, then people eat even more wheat because there’s even less rice available.
There are a number of genuine reasons for this decrease in rice production, but the end result is a considerably reduced availability of rice to the consumer, which would naturally lead to an increased price.
However, this is compounded by further metrics.
Rice Exports
So this is where I have found a major contributing factor to the increasing price of rice.
While exports might be great for the GDP, it adversely affects families who are now struggling to afford and justify eating rice. The cost of living is forever increasing while the average wage in Japan has remained stagnant for over a decade.
If the previous year production was so low, then the export targets should have been adjusted accordingly, yet the powers that be just want more.
In-fact the export target is 350,000 tons by 2030, which is nearly eight times what was exported in 2024.
Are Tourists Really To Blame?
The Ministry of Agriculture estimated that tourists accounted for around 51,000 tons of rice consumption for the year 2024-2025, assuming an average of two rice-based meals per day.
51,000 tons is 0.75% of the total milled rice production for that year.
Japan’s Acreage Reduction Policy
This is perhaps the greatest contributor to the supply and price of rice at the moment.
The central government takes an active role in controlling the price of rice through the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries’ acreage reduction policy.
Due to acreage reduction, rice production is cut to raise market prices, and the government provides subsidies to rice farmers who switch to other crops such as wheat or soybeans.
Because consumption of bread, pasta and other alternative foods is increasing, if farmers produced the same amount of rice as before, there would be a surplus, causing the price of rice to drop.
To avoid such a situation, production has been cut year by year.
This wouldn’t be so much of an issue, if not for export targets raising year by year.
The Affects
Of course it’s not only the price of rice at the supermarket which has been affected, but also the increase in wholesale costs for restaurants, which has in-turn resulted in a price rise in many places.
Sushi restaurants are raising their prices and famously even what were once seen as affordable Gyudon restaurants have been forced to increase their prices.
The three largest gyudon chains in Japan; Matsuya, Sukiya and Yoshinoya have all increased the price of a set meal since the start of this year (2025)
Many restauranteurs in Japan work hard to keep their price to the customer as low as possible, as repeat business from loyal customers is considered to be far more important than making a quick buck. Nobody wants to raise their prices, but they are having to do so simply to cover their increased costs.
Even convenience stores such as 7-11 are raising the price of their prepared onigri and bento meals.
What Is Being Done?
The central Japanese government maintains a stockpile of 1 million tons of rice, which is the equivalent of about eight weeks of domestic consumption.
So far this year 210,000 tons has been auctioned out into the market in an effort to stabilise the situation, marking the first time ever that stockpiled rice has been released due to a shortage. Typically this stockpile has only been used for relief after natural disasters.
However, rice shops and supermarkets all over Japan have stated this has had little to no impact on the supply or price of rice, with many still struggling to source rice as most of the released stockpile went straight into the restaurants.
Many supermarkets are limiting rice purchases to one (5kg) bag per customer at a time, when they have it in stock.
Many times in recent months when visiting multiple local supermarkets I have seen what were once shelves upon shelves of rice, reduced to only a handful of microwave rice pots.
Many commercial buyers are now opting to import rice from the USA.
The government get to export something and cash in on that, while the commercial and domestic market are forced to import the same commodity, and again the government cashes in.
What Should Be Done?
I am not an economist or an expert in agricultural matters, but the fact simply cannot be ignored that to aim to export such a huge amount of something which is struggling to meet even the domestic demand at an affordable level while at the same time actively reducing the acreage for production, is perhaps not the best move.
As mentioned above, due to the increased price of rice many families are choosing/being forced to consider other grains.
As the consumer is priced out of rice, the domestic demand falls, the incentive to grow it dwindles and the capacity to export follows suite.
The practice of price control to prevent oversupply in an effort to aid farmers maintain a steady wage, leaves very little room when things don’t go as planned. Reactively, the export levels should have been adjusted, and proactively the acreage should have room for unforeseen natural factors, such as the weather.
As I said, I am not an economist… I am not an expert in agricultural matters… But I can see a problem here, and people more clever than I need to come up with a solution.
A nation should aim to be as self sufficient as possible. Anything that can be made domestically should be, and the excess exported.
At no point should a nation have to import the same thing it is exporting, due to a shortage… It should never have exported so much to begin with.
Exports are a great thing, when you have an abundance of something.
It’s easy to simply blame tourists for all ills, but it would be nice to see a more proactive approach to this, and many other issues currently experienced in Japan.
Thank you for reading!
